Managing outbreaks of invasive species: eradication vs. suppression

A framework is developed to evaluate eradication as one of three alternative management responses to an outbreak of an invasive species: eradication, suppression or no action. This framework can be used to establish under what conditions an eradication option could provide an expected net economic benefit, and whether this net benefit exceeds that of the other two options. The eradication option is more likely to be preferred in situations where there is an immediate export benefit that is derived from eradication of the outbreak, and also the uncertainty associated with the likely success of eradication is low.

An objective climatology of the dynamical forcing of polar lows in the Nordic seas

A new objective climatology of polar lows in the Nordic (Norwegian and Barents) seas has been derived from a database of diagnostics of objectively identified cyclones spanning the period January 2000 to April 2004. There are two distinct parts to this study: the development of the objective climatology and a characterization of the dynamical forcing of the polar lows identified. Polar lows are an intense subset of polar mesocyclones. Polar mesocyclones are distinguished from other cyclones in the database as those that occur in cold air outbreaks over the open ocean. The difference between the wet-bulb potential temperature at 700 hPa and the sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be an effective discriminator between the atmospheric conditions associated with polar lows and other cyclones in the Nordic seas. A verification study shows that the objective identification method is reliable in the Nordic seas region. After demonstrating success at identifying polar lows using the above method, the dynamical forcing of the polar lows in the Nordic seas is characterized. Diagnostics of the ratio of mid-level vertical motion attributable to quasi-geostrophic forcing from upper and lower levels (U/L ratio) are used to determine the prevalence of a recently proposed category of extratropical cyclogenesis, type C, for which latent heat release is crucial to development. Thirty-one percent of the objectively identified polar low events (36 from 115) exceeded the U/L ratio of 4.0, previously identified as a threshold for type C cyclones. There is a contrast between polar lows to the north and south of the Nordic seas. In the southern Norwegian Sea, the population of polar low events is dominated by type C cyclones. These possess strong convection and weak low-level baroclinicity. Over the Barents and northern Norwegian seas, the well-known cyclogenesis types A and B dominate. These possess stronger low-level baroclinicity and weaker convection.

An exploration of the drivers to bio-security collective action among a sample of UK cattle and sheep farmers

At present, collective action regarding bio-security among UK cattle and sheep farmers is rare. Despite the occurrence of catastrophic livestock diseases such as bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and foot and mouth disease (FMD), within recent decades, there are few national or local farmer-led animal health schemes. To explore the reasons for this apparent lack of interest, we utilised a socio-psychological approach to disaggregate the cognitive, emotive and contextual factors driving bio-security behaviour among cattle and sheep farmers in the United Kingdom (UK). In total, we interviewed 121 farmers in South-West England and Wales. The main analytical tools included a content, cluster and logistic regression analysis. The results of the content analysis illustrated apparent 'dissonance' between bio-security attitudes and behaviour.(1) Despite the heavy toll animal disease has taken on the agricultural economy, most study participants were dismissive of the many measures associated with bio-security. Justification for this lack of interest was largely framed in relation to the collective attribution or blame for the disease threats themselves. Indeed, epidemic diseases were largely related to external actors and agents. Reasons for outbreaks included inadequate border control, in tandem with ineffective policies and regulations. Conversely, endemic livestock disease was viewed as a problem for 'bad' farmers and not an issue for those individuals who managed their stock well. As such, there was little utility in forming groups to address what was largely perceived as an individual problem. Further, we found that attitudes toward bio-security did not appear to be influenced by any particular source of information per se. While strong negative attitudes were found toward specific sources of bio-security information, e.g. government leaflets, these appear to simply reflect widely held beliefs. In relation to actual bio-security behaviours, the logistic regression analysis revealed no significant difference between in-scheme and out of scheme farmers. We concluded that in order to support collective action with regard to bio-security, messages need to be reframed and delivered from a neutral source. Efforts to support group formation must also recognise and address the issues relating to perceptions of social connectedness among the communities involved. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-benefit analysis model of badger (Meles meles) culling to reduce cattle herd tuberculosis breakdowns in Britain, with particular reference to badger perturbation

Bovine tuberculosis (TB)is an important economic disease. Badgers (Meles meles) are the wildlife source implicated in many cattle outbreaks of TB in Britain, and extensive badger control is a controversial option to reduce the disease. A badger and cattle population model was developed, simulating TB epidemiology; badger ecology, including postcull social perturbation; and TB-related farm management. An economic cost-benefit module was integrated into the model to assess whether badger control offers economic benefits. Model results strongly indicate that although, if perturbation were restricted, extensive badger culling could reduce rates in cattle, overall an economic loss would be more likely than a benefit. Perturbation of the badger population was a key factor determining success or failure of control. The model highlighted some important knowledge gaps regarding both the spatial and temporal characteristics of perturbation that warrant further research.

The effects of infection by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae (Myxozoa) and temperature on Fredericella sultana (Bryozoa)

The myxozoan, Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, exploits freshwater bryozoans as definitive hosts, occurring as cryptic stages in bryozoan colonies during covert infections and as spore-forming sacs during overt infections. Spores released from sacs are infective to salmonid fish, causing the devastating Proliferative Kidney Disease (PKD). We undertook laboratory studies using mesocosm systems running at 10, 14 and 20 degrees C to determine how infection by T bryosalmonae and water temperature influence fitness of one of its most important bryozoan hosts, Fredericella sultana, over a period of 4 weeks. The effects of infection were context-dependent and often undetectable. Covert infections appear to pose very low energetic costs. Thus, we found that growth of covertly infected F. sultana colonies was similar to that of uninfected colonies regardless of temperature, as was the propensity to produce dormant resting stages (statoblasts). Production of statoblasts, however, was associated with decreased growth. Overt infections imposed greater effects on correlates of host fitness by: (i) reducing growth rates at the two higher temperatures: (ii) increasing mortality rates at the highest temperature: (iii) inhibiting statoblast production. Our results indicate that parasitism should have a relatively small effect on host fitness in the field as the negative effects of infection were mainly expressed in environmentally extreme conditions (20 degrees C for 4 weeks). The generally low virulence of T. bryosalmonae is similar to that recently demonstrated for another myxozoan endoparasite of freshwater bryozoans. The unique opportunity for extensive vertical transmission in these colonial invertebrate hosts couples the reproductive interests of host and parasite and may well give rise to the low virulence that characterises these systems. Our study implies that climate change can be expected to exacerbate PKD outbreaks and increase the geographic range of PKD as a result of the combined responses of T. bryosalmonae and its bryozoan hosts to higher temperatures. Crown Copyright (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales

Phytophthora ramorum is a damaging invasive plant pathogen and was first discovered in the UK in 2002. Spatial point analyses were applied to the occurrence of this disease in England and Wales during the period of 2003-2006 in order to assess its spatio-temporal spread. Out of the 4301 garden centres and nurseries (GCN) surveyed, there were 164, 105, 123 and 41 sites with P. ramorum in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Spatial analysis of the observed point patterns of GCN outbreaks suggested that these sites were significantly clumped within a radius of ca 60 km in 2003, but not in later years. Further analyses were conducted to determine the relationship of GCN outbreak sites over two consecutive years and thus to infer possible disease spread over time. This analysis suggested that disease spread among GCN sites was most likely to have occurred within a distance of 60 km for 2003-2004, but not for the later years. There were 35, 63, 81 and 58 sites with P. ramorum in the semi-natural environment (SNE). Analyses were carried out to assess whether infected GCN sites could act as an inoculum source of infected SNE plants or vice versa. In all years, there was a significant spatial closeness among GCN and SNE outbreak sites within a distance of 1 km. But a significant relationship over a longer distance (within 60 km) was only observed between cases in 2003 and 2004. These analyses suggest that statutory actions taken so far appear to have reduced the extent of long-distance spread of P. ramorum among garden centres and nurseries, but not the disease spread at a shorter distance between GCN and SNE sites.

Evolution of microbial virulence: the benefits of stress

Although genome sequencing of microbial pathogens has shed light on the evolution of virulence, the drivers of the gain and loss of genes and of pathogenicity islands (gene clusters), which contribute to the emergence of new disease outbreaks, are unclear. Recent experiments with the bean pathogen Pseudomonas syringae pv. phaseolicola illustrate how exposure to resistance mechanisms acts as the driving force for genome reorganization. Here we argue that the antimicrobial conditions generated by host defences can accelerate the generation of genome rearrangements that provide selective advantages to the invading microbe. Similar exposure to environmental stress outside the host could also drive the horizontal gene transfer that has led to the evolution of pathogenicity towards both animals and plants.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.

Temperature-driven proliferation of Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae in bryozoan hosts portends salmonid declines

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) is an emerging disease of salmonid fishes. It is provoked by temperature and caused by infective spores of the myxozoan parasite Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, which develops in freshwater bryozoans. We investigated the link between PKD and temperature by determining whether temperature influences the proliferation of T bryosalmonae in the bryozoan host Fredericella sultana. Herein we show that increased temperatures drive the proliferation of T bryosalmonae in bryozoans by provoking, accelerating and prolonging the production of infective spores from cryptic stages. Based on these results we predict that PKD outbreaks will increase further in magnitude and severity in wild and farmed salmonids as a result of climate-driven enhanced proliferation in invertebrate hosts, and urge for early implementation of management strategies to reduce future salmonid declines.

Vibrio parahaemolyticus associated with mass mortality of postlarval abalone, Haliotis diversicolor supertexta (L.), in Sanya, China

Outbreaks of mass mortality in postlarval abalone, Haliotis diversicolor supertexta (L.), have swept across south China since 2002 and in turn have resulted in many abalone farms closing. Twenty-five representative bacterial isolates were isolated from a sample of five diseased postlarval abalone, taken 15 d postfertilization during an outbreak of postlarval disease in Sanya, Hainan Province, China in October 2004. A dominant isolate, referred to as Strain 6, was found to be highly virulent to postlarvae in an experimental challenge test, with a 50% lethal dose (LD50) value of 3.2 x 10(4) colony forming units (CFU)/mL, while six of the other isolates were weakly virulent with LD50 values ranging from 1 x 10(6) to 1 x 10(7) CFU/mL, and the remaining 18 isolates were classified as avirulent with LD50 values greater than 1 x 10(8) CFU/mL. Using both an API 20E kit and 16S recombinant DNA sequence analysis, Strain 6 was shown to be Vibrio parahaemolyticus. It was sensitive to 4 and intermediately sensitive to 5 of the 16 antibiotics used when screening the antibiotic sensitivities of the bacterium. Extracellular products (ECPs) prepared from the bacterium were lethal to postlarvae when used in a toxicity test at a concentration of 3.77 mg protein/mL, and complete liquefaction of postlarvae tissues occurred within 24 h postexposure. Results from this study implicate V. parahaemolyticus as the pathogen involved in the disease outbreaks in postlarval abalone in Sanya and show that the ECPs may be involved in the pathogenesis of the disease.

Observations of Saharan dust layer electrification

Electrification of atmospheric dust influences the coagulation, wet removal and fall speeds of dust particles. Alignment of dust particles can also occur in fair weather atmospheric electrical conditions if the particles are charged. However, very few electrical measurements made in elevated dust layers exist. Balloon-borne charge and particle instrumentation have been used to investigate the electrical properties of elevated Saharan dust layers. Soundings from the Cape Verde Islands, which experience frequent Saharan dust outbreaks, intercepted several dust layers. Two balloon soundings during summer 2009 detected dust particles in layers up to 4 km altitude. Simultaneous electrical measurements showed charge inside the dust layers, with a maximum measured charge density of 25 pC m − 3, sufficient to influence wet removal processes.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

Optical genetic mapping defines regions of chromosomal variation in serovars of S. enterica subsp enterica of concern for human and animal health

Infections involving Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica serovars have serious animal and human health implications; causing gastroenteritis in humans and clinical symptoms, such as diarrhoea and abortion, in livestock. In this study an optical genetic mapping technique was used to screen 20 field isolate strains from four serovars implicated in disease outbreaks. The technique was able to distinguish between the serovars and the available sequenced strains and group them in agreement with similar data from microarrays and PFGE. The optical maps revealed variation in genome maps associated with antimicrobial resistance and prophage content in S. Typhimurium, and separated the S. Newport strains into two clear geographical lineages defined by the presence of prophage sequences. The technique was also able to detect novel insertions that may have had effects on the central metabolism of some strains. Overall optical mapping allowed a greater level of differentiation of genomic content and spatial information than more traditional typing methods.

Escherichia coli O157:H7 colonization in small domestic ruminants

Enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 was first implicated in human disease in the early 1980s, with ruminants cited as the primary reservoirs. Preliminary studies indicated cattle to be the sole source of E. coli O157:H7 outbreaks in humans; however, further epidemiological studies soon demonstrated that E. coli O157:H7 was widespread in other food sources and that a number of transmission routes existed. More recently, small domestic ruminants (sheep and goats) have emerged as important sources of E. coli O157:H7 human infection, particularly with the widespread popularity of petting farms and the increased use of sheep and goat food products, including unpasteurized cheeses. Although the colonization and persistence characteristics of E. coli O157:H7 in the bovine host have been studied intensively, this is not the case for small ruminants. Despite many similarities to the bovine host, the pathobiology of E. coli O157:H7 in small domestic ruminants does appear to differ significantly from that described in cattle. This review aims to critically review the current knowledge regarding colonization and persistence of E. coli O157:H7 in small domestic ruminants, including comparisons with the bovine host where appropriate.